How to Make Accurate Predictions

And why experience doesn’t help much.

a litigator, I make intuitive predictions all the time. But does the mere fact that I make them often mean that they’re more accurate than those who make them sporadically? Does experience improve accuracy?

Philip Tetlock says no. This may come as a surprise to the legal profession, a field with no shortage of traditions, in which deference…

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Productivity, craftsmanship, and the pursuit of excellence at work. Writing now at jennifertchan.substack.com.

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Jennifer Chan

Productivity, craftsmanship, and the pursuit of excellence at work. Writing now at jennifertchan.substack.com.