How to Make Accurate Predictions

Jennifer Chan
5 min readMay 14, 2020

And why experience doesn’t help much.

As a litigator, I make intuitive predictions all the time. But does the mere fact that I make them often mean that they’re more accurate than those who make them sporadically? Does experience improve accuracy?

Philip Tetlock says no. This may come as a surprise to the legal profession, a field with no shortage of traditions, in which deference…

Jennifer Chan

Productivity, craftsmanship, and the pursuit of excellence at work. Writing now at